The Long Road to Transparancy

In 2006, it was hard for me to imagine the response the Fed would offer about the rise in Foreclosures, which pointed to a horrible lending practice that had been thriving through the last few years previous to it. During that time Sub Prime lending was coming of age. It produced a total of no less than $3 Trillion dollars worth of risky loans. The obvious solution, to me, at the time was to restore the conditions of the original titles, to the properties these trillions of certificates represented. The issue during the crisis was, “how to price something no one wants to buy”, which lent to the nickname “Toxic”.

In Goldman Sachs 2010 SEC filing, these previously “Toxic” bonds with a thousand different acronyms, are now being referred to as “Fair Value Financial Instruments”. The Federal Reserve has accepted over $2 Trillion worth of these, as collateral for loans to the banks who would have collapsed in 08 had they been kept on their books. Banks during the crisis were leery to lend to each other on the general concern that these notes or securities were worthless, and that these institutions holding them needed to dramatically ‘write down’ their value. Instead the Fed offered to take them for collateral, under the auspices that they could be traded later when the crisis had passed thereby earning the US a profit for helping.

The challenge for me and lots of other investors is the casual nature that seems to be the “New Federal Reserve”. Gone is the Greenspan age of diligent research and proactive policies. It was a shock to me when I read Ben Bernanke’s comments to Congress in 2007, that the Subprime fallout would stay in the subprime industry and “shouldn’t be” a threat to the general economy. Instead it led to some of the worst days in our economic history, and throwing out uneducated (or un-researched) guesses about something of a $3 Trillion dynasty seems surprising to me.

Today the Wall Street Journal reported that the Fed had failed to disclose some $80 Billion dollars worth of loans it had made to several of the groups that were leading the battle cry for this flimsy market of massive risk. Throughout 2008, from March through December, the Fed loaned $80 billion to institutes like Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank AG, in an attempt to provide liquidity to support more mortgage lending and keep the mortgage security industry moving, while slightly after the main fallout in 08, the Fed was telling Congress that they needed more oversight powers in order to avoid a systemic failure if the future ever presented the opportunity. What I want to know is why didn’t the SEC look into what was happening with the ratings agencies when Steve Eisman went to them with a detailed outline of the market and it’s risks!

I recently had a chance to read, “The Big Short”, by Michael Lewis, which outlines the Subprime Market through it’s various faces and gives the perspectives of men like Steve Eismen who were shorting the market by purchasing Credit Default Swaps, while financial institutes like Goldman Sachs were using the same default insurance to give customers confidence in the products. Everyone claims this was to make cheap credit available for everyone, but what will the over-all cost be when the dust finally settles; when the only thing that changed is the words used to describe the original problem and the original problem still looms in the form of massive debt.

Now the task of getting the US Dollar back on track (solving the deficit) has fallen to the politicians to work out and I have a pretty strong feeling that party pride will weigh in against any wise choices. The fact is that even the best economists, mathematicians and social psychologists, coupled with all the facts and the green light to do whatsoever is necessary to solve the puzzle and put the US Economy back on track would probably not like the options. The one thing I’m sure of is that everything is hinged on the continuing US Dollar, which is now in the hands of a 2 party political drama… Curious.

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Last Night on TV

So, last night I’m watching the La Lakers take the first game of the Western Conference Finals (online of course) and I get to watch all the commercials on ESPN. Some of you might think that’s a bit odd, but I don’t have access to commercial television; no cable or satellite dish, just my internet connection.

All through the game I saw a lot of different advertising and this one I couldn’t believe. First of all Toyota is advertising their prius and it’s Green Appeal, and then I see this Cadillac Escalade commercial and it hits me that this whole GM bailout is going to fail, sure as shit. How is this any different?

Toyota and Honda are both selling cars that people need in order to meet with the changes coming, frankly gasoline cannot last for ever and these things can get 50 mpg. What does an Escalade get for mileage. I don’t even care. Like I said I don’t even own cable..

It amazes me we even bothered bailing anything out at all, the banks the insurers and the automakers can fold and I don’t think I would miss them at all. It seems to me that they got themselves into this mess, right!?

But, promising the American Government that it would change directions and then going on like “business as usual”, minus the layoffs, factory closures, and dealer closings. Don’t worry we’ll help you stretch out that failure, while we let our factory workers and and sales people find something else to do.

Personally I believe that all that bailout money would have been far more wisely spent on education, because the people running these companies obviously missed out on economics 101…

A Taxing Tea Party

In response to Congress’ new Stimulus Package A site called taxdayteaparty.com/ has become the highly vocal spirit behind the movement to protest the taxation built into the new Congressional Stimulus Package. Fox News, as well, have begun running commentary ringing the theme “Take Back America”. A big position for a National News Service, to say the least.

It has been my opinion that there is a strong and steady building of sides that has cast a shadow on the Obama Administration. Probably not as potent as the separation of ideals that originally led to the breakaway states that ignited the Civil War in the 1800′s, but America has definitely come to a turning point in its History.

As Fox News has pointed out there is almost no coverage from many of the Major News Services in the US or abroad for that matter. It doesn’t seem PC to discuss it.

Michael Steel, RNC Chairman, had to respond publicly to rumors that he was asking to be counted in as a participant of the Tax Day Demonstrations. According to his response he had never considered himself involved in any way, nor had he suggested that to Tax Day Tea Party or its organizers.

In the past few months since Obama has taken office there have been a cacophony of voices cheering on one side of the isle, while another less casual voice from across the way that has begun chanting descent of the Liberal Pull that has swept through Congress.

But, lets not forget that the Republicans got the ball rolling with the TARP program request to Congress which gave $700 bil to financial institutes, who essentially put the US in dyer straights with reckless decisions, while ignoring the systemic risks involved, not to mention the bailout of Bear Stearns and AIG, Instigated by George Bush’s choice for Fed Chief, Ben Bernanke.

Some of America have become quite upset with the bailout and feel that the economy should have followed the natural course it had created for itself, which could have brought a huge number of major banks to ruin. It’s hard to say what’s really helping, but it is well known in economic circles, that the Government isn’t responsible for the health of the economy, or shouldn’t be. Hence the idea of Free Enterprise.

Its very hard to predict where this movement will take us, as it is equally difficult to predict whether or not the now Trillions of dollars being spent on these broken financials will ultimately do what it has been intended to do.

The good news is that people are talking about topics that were once considered taboos in America. Lets just hope it comes to wholesome and constructive ends!

Congress Averting another Catastophe: But this time a Revolution

Man, talk about a close call. The public uproar on the whole AIG bonus Scandal was quite a fervent scene to observe. Congress was so worried about it that they basically lynched anyone who was supposed to get any kind of bonus, that had anything to do with any financial agency that took Fed or Treasury funds.

The problem is that it reminds me of the day the Treasury announced the take-over of Freddie and Fannie. I really think it was the first wave of panic that started the horrible conditions we see today. The second shock was letting Lehman Bros. fail… but the biggest shock so far was when Congress’ Lame duck Republican leaning vote against the original TARP Funds. That was the shot heard round the World.

Within a few hours of the outcome, the LIBOR jumped more than 200 basis points and essentially shut down all loaning. This was the real Credit Crisis. Everything previously experienced was just a warm up. After that everything became a shock to everyone…

So, here we are. 2 years after the fall of the Real Estate Bubble and things were starting to look as though there might be a shift in the momentum, of what many are hoping would be the bottom of this deflationary period, and Congress sounds the Alarm!

I wonder how many people will show up for work tomorrow. At least the ones that are being held responcible for cleaning up the mess at AIG might not be interested in working for free… The one thing that’s certain is that we will find out whether or not Liddy was telling the truth, in his testimony to Congress. He said that without the people who are receiving the bonuses, it would leave about $1.6 Trillion of risk unmanaged, and that that would lead to the collapse of AIG. And… according to Ben Bernanke, a collapse of AIG would lead to a World Financial Systemic Collapse.

hmm… It should be an interesting week ahead.

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Short Selling out Americans

Last night the Daily Show ran a piece on a Wall Street habit refferred to as Short Selling. Short selling is essentially; borrowing someone elses stock and selling it at the current price, then buying the stock back at a lower price and returning it to the original owner. I’ve written about this in the recent past, but feel I need to bring this up again.

The biggest problem with Short Selling, short of selling someone elses 401k for your own profit, is that it is counterproductive to the goals of seemingly everyone else who has anything to lose in the business and financial world. I guess that would be the rest of us! While we (The US Treasury Dept. and the Fed) are pumping Trillions of dollars into the financial industry heavy investment is out there leading us further into a depressed state of the economy. I’m sorry, but WTF!

I don’t understand why this ISN’T illegal. Everything about it seems shady, if not dead wrong. If I want to bet on a stock going down, why shouldn’t I be required to use my own money and stocks to do so, say buying a “Put” rather than stealing someone elses profits from there stock portfolio. It’s funny and ironic that soon it will be too late to put an end to this illicit deceptive act of STEALING from the American Trust, and we the People are going to need a scape goat to hang in time square for letting our money be used to make us poor!

I think we should start with “The Banker Friends” to begin with. It was Bernenke that signed the agreement with AIG about paying the bonus to their various departments, which we all know meant paying the villains in this movie! It is and was the SEC that allowed all these horrible business practices that got us to here…

So, here we are looking back down the hallway of choices that brought us to where we are and nothing will ever change that. It has happened and is happening, and no one can see past their thin vail of politics or their wigs of financial wealth to reason with the need to do things honestly. What a shame!

So Proud We all are!

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This is the kind of thing that really frustrates me about our country… This is meant to be a Representative Government! We place individuals in positions of trust in the hope they will do their jobs and keep the public interests at the forefront of their doings, and no matter how much we would like to think it, these individuals are influenced by money and power and finally turn on their handlers, namely the Public Trust!

I can write all I want about it, but nothing I say will ever give back the Trillions of Dollars stolen or lost by the very people we Trust to be the Good Stewards of our Faith in our ethics as a Nation; as an Ideal!

60 Minutes with Ben Bernanke

When he was asked “why” are you appearing for an interview, Ben (may I call you Ben?) responded… “These are unusual times!”. Ferderal Reserve Chiefs never give interviews, so Yes, it is an extraordinary time.

He also said it gave him the chance to speak directly to the American People. I, on the other hand, have to blog in order to gain such hope, that anyone wants to really hear anything I have to say. So, you go Ben…

Oh, hey since I’ve got you on the show, do you mind if I ask you an unrehearsed question? “Why are you still ignoring the Mortgage Securities issue. The fact that all these banks are still hiding the amount and real values of all these, “what does wall street call them?”, oh yeah! Toxic Assets. If my memory serves me, you did the same thing in the beginning as the foreclosures began in late 07, and had these results. Weird, so…

Now you go on 60 minutes and tell the AMerican People that the probl;em with the financial system is the financial system, sell us on further bailout “political will”, while you continue to ignore what still seems to have no answer. Nice…

Well here’s my opinion, and you can put this on 60 Minutes!).. Take the paper from the banks as collateral, let them value it as they like and we’ll loan’em the dough. Then! We take all this paper and assemble a crack team of trackers and those ladies that do all those puzzles in the kitchen, and find the missing real estate. Put all those rotten piece of collateral into nice easy to manage mortgages. Then return the assessed value in real estate back to the bank. Once the debts are reassembled, as mortgages, they will have a very clear value and other banks will know for a fact that there books are clean.

Or, come up with something else that doesn’t involve giving the banks more money without a plan to resolve the real issue! It’s the paper that got us here… Come on, Ben!

AIG and the Mad Money Method

I am Appalled! Is anybody watching this AIG Scandal as it enfolds. Now the Company we just bailed out of bankruptcy is grooving on business as usual, while we scratch our head confused an angry… WTF!

Today, as I’m sure you’ve seen by now, AIG announced it will be paying 165 Mil, of our money, in bonuses, to the department that was largely responsible for AIG’s collapse. “Look you lost control of the ship and crashed, sorry about your bonuses”, but this isn’t what was said at all!

Lets just take a minute and consider a few things. First of all, what are we paying for when we talk about bailing out AIG. The Fed and the Treasury Dept. said that AIG’s collapse could lead to a systemic break down. The thing you’ve got to keep in mind is that they are talking about the existing financial system and I don’t have a problem with that. This one is so corrupt that it is willing to lie cheat and steal, “business as usual”, right through are hard earned tax money. Expecting it!

Look you CAN NOT give money you didn’t have! Especially not to pay for these Leaders of Anti-Trust’s luxury yachts, while Mr. and Mrs. Jones are getting hurled out on the street, after being unemployed by the same company, just after loosing their entire 401k in the Great Crash of 08. This entire financial crisis was brought to you by greed, arrogance, and manipulation. Weighing in on your future!

The fact is that entire system is build on a solid foundation of people (consumers) buying products and services on a constant basis! It needs to be deflated, but I’ll go one more step and announce that it as well needs to redefine itself on the natural progressions of human evolution, or acclimation depending on how you look at it. Frankly most of us are tired of something and mostly each other.

So, let me get this straight, AIG insured the Subprime Mortgage Securities. The securities went bad, due to poor risk assessment and you want us to bail you out now. Didn’t we cover your clients, for you, already with something like $2 trillion in bailout and stimulus packages, and now you want to give some of the money were providing for your salvation to the driver of the wrecked vehicle. Fuck That, lets just step outside and settle this right now!